There is a lot of speculation about whether Governor Napolitano will accept an appointment to serve in President-elect Obama’s cabinet.

I fully appreciate that I may be in the minority with my opinion, but here it is anyway.

I predict that President-elect Obama WILL NOT offer Napolitano a position.

Here is why I don’t think a cabinet spot is in the near future for Napolitano. Every presidential campaign salivates over having governors of their party in key battleground states. In 2012, Arizona will be a key battleground state. If Napolitano goes to D.C., that means Arizona has Governor Brewer; a staunch and exceedingly competent Republican to serve as governor until the next election. Brewer has to be favored to win the whole thing in 2010 if she takes over in 2009.

The last thing Obama wants is Brewer controlling the political levers of power in Arizona during his re-election.

Nothing would make me happier than a Governor Brewer in 2009. Unfortunately, I think Obama will only be thinking about his re-election and not what is in the best interests of Republicans in Arizona.

How selfish is that?

I know that I haven’t been very optimistic lately. Here are some of the topics I’ve touched on lately.

• The Democrats are winning or close in numerous key races across Arizona.

• The national economy is the worst we’ve seen in decades and, depending on how the credit crisis is resolved, maybe the worst economy in the last 80 years.

Now, here is another piece of information that should leave all of us very concerned. According to CNBC, Arizona has the largest debt as a percentage of its revenue of any state in the country.

Here are the ten worst states in order.

State                                        % of Debt to Revenue                                  Debt in $

Arizona                                   23.4%                                                              $2.4 Billion

California                                22.0%                                                              $22.2 Billion

Florida                                     19.9%                                                              $5.1 Billion

Nevada                                    16.0%                                                              $1.2 Billion

Rhode Island                          13.9%                                                              $456 Million

Virginia                                   12.8%                                                              $2.2 Billion

South Carolina                        11.7%                                                              $804 Million

New York                               10.8%                                                              $6.1 Billion

New Hampshire                      10.0%                                                              $310 Million

Alabama                                  9.5%                                                                $784 Million

I think there are a lot of reasons for Arizona’s woes. Napolitano has led the fight and passed budgets that have doubled Arizona’s spending in just six years. The housing bubble burst. We have a runaway initiative process that is allowing special interests to bankrupt Arizona. Those are just off the top of my head.

Those are all true; however, here is the political question that deserves being asked:   When do Republicans start messaging this against Janet Napolitano? As the chief executive officer of Arizona, she has managed to bankrupt our state and lead Arizona into its worst economy – EVER!

Napolitano has been such a bad CEO of the state’s economy that even Lehman Brothers would have fired her.

Yet I have heard very few Republicans pound away on this. They certainly haven’t done it with any coherence or saturation. She needs to be held accountable.

But I think we all know that she will literally beg an Obama administration for a job. If, in the horrific circumstance Obama is elected, she will bail on our state just when her failed policies begin to bear fruit.

Arizona may be in for six or seven years of serious financial trouble. APS, SRP, and Southwest Gas are all predicting flat or negative growth for the first time since the air conditioner was invented – literally!

If Arizona doesn’t right its ship economically, she may go down as one of the worst governors ever. And in Arizona, that is saying something.

Of course, for people to know that, it would require Republicans telling people.

I’ve worked in sales before. It is far easier to create pipeline reports (prospects list) for your boss than to actually close a deal and get a check in the door.

So far, Obama has performed the political equivalent of creating a great pipeline report. He’s forcing McCain to spend time in Virginia and North Carolina. Yet every poll seems to indicate that the numbers are gradually shifting back McCain’s way. Proving yet again that closing the deal is much harder than it looks.

I know that just about every pundit in the country has crowned Obama the next president. Here is the problem: the voters aren’t buying what Obama is selling. He is barely at 50%. Here is today’s daily tracking numbers, courtesy of my favorite political website www.realclearpolitics.com.

Rasmussen is by far and away my favorite tracking poll. It is historically very close. Hotline is the outlier here with Obama up 8. I think it is pretty clear that McCain is down 4 or 5.

That makes this a winnable race. McCain supporters shouldn’t lose heart. They should roll up their sleeves and get to work.

Bush won 286 electoral votes in 2004. The two most difficult states to keep in the column this time are Iowa and New Mexico. Let’s assume a worst case scenario and McCain loses both. That would take McCain down to 274 electoral votes.

Here are the states McCain must win that he is currently trailing or that are close.

Ohio

Florida

Virginia

North Carolina

Colorado

Missouri

Nevada

McCain should win each of those states. If he does, it will be President McCain on January 20, 2009.

Obama hasn’t put this in the deep freeze by any stretch of the imagination. Remember that Al Gore closed a five-point deficit in 2000 when his voters finally came home.

It won’t be easy, but if there is one person who knows what it means to never give up, it’s John McCain.

I know some of you think my pessimism about the Legislature is tantamount to saying the sky is falling. Well, in Arizona this election cycle, the sky may just be falling.

The Hill reported earlier this week that the DCCC (Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee) was spending more money in Arizona this year than any other state except Ohio.

Now, the DCCC releases a poll showing Lord ahead of Shadegg. I know it is a partisan poll and Shadegg is likely still ahead. But, I think that even he would concede it is closer than it should be. The DCCC posts polling to telegraph to their union cronies where they want them to put money. This is not going to be pretty.

Right now, Shadegg is being badly outspent because the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) is broke. John Shadegg needs our help desperately. Here is John Shadegg’s campaign Web site. Please make a contribution or volunteer your time. Arizona will turn blue before our eyes if we don’t act.

I have written a memo to all Republicans running for the Legislature. I have never seen polling so grim for Republicans. Based on the current environment today, the state House will likely switch control and the state Senate is very close.

I realize that this memo will stir some anxiety. I wrote it because our candidates can still win, but they need to take immediate and decisive action.

You would think I rent motel rooms by the hour based on this description about me.

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1846323,00.html

I work with a man named David Trippe who is the perfect southern gentleman. He is perfectly pressed every day and every hair is in place. Last year, he moved here from Atlanta, Georgia. Think Gone with the Wind meets 2008.

The Rhett Butler character reminds me perfectly of David.

That is one piece of information you need to have. The second is that my kids attend a school that is located on Southern Avenue and absolutely love “Mr. Trippe.”

Last night, my son Reagan asked me if Mr. Trippe lived on Southern Avenue. I said, “No, but why are you asking?” Reagan said, “I thought that was the kind of accent he had.”

If you don’t have kids, it probably doesn’t sound too funny. If you do, it’s hilarious. At least I think so.

As I watched the House of Representatives vote down a $700 Billion bailout and the subsequent chaos that did happen and is happening, I thought about the sinking of the Titanic.

There are obvious parallels that we hope don’t occur. While I am a perpetual optimist, I am extremely concerned that if our political leaders don’t put aside partisanship soon, we will be hurtled headlong into another depression. I know that sounds drastic, but when the free-flow of cash stops, depressions happen.

The obvious analogy to the Titanic is that our economy has hit the iceberg of a credit crisis and now our economy is sinking into the icy depths of an oceanic depression.

While true, that isn’t why I thought of the Titanic. Hubris is why I thought of the Titanic.

According to reports after the Titanic’s sinking, someone actually had the audacity to utter, “God himself could not sink this ship.” The hubris of humanity was on full display. And, in a case of truly sad irony; we learned it didn’t take God to sink her, just a big iceberg.

In 2005, the hubris of humanity believed we had entered a new era where normal economic principles didn’t apply. We are so smart that we could create Securitized Investment Vehicles and Mortgage Backed Securities that were literally designed by physicists. They were so complicated that the Security Exchange Commission couldn’t regulate them and bond rating agencies couldn’t analyze them.

The hubris of humanity believed that we are smart enough to create a new economy that was flying so high that not even God could bring our economy crashing to earth.

One iceberg and one credit crisis painfully reminds us of the proverb. “Pride goes before a fall.”

I obviously don’t expect a call from President Bush seeking my advice. But, if he were to ask, here is what I would say.

First, declare October 1, 2008 a day of prayer and solemn reflection. Our nation has done this as recently as the 9/11 attack to remind ourselves that we are mere mortals. When we, in all our hubris, act like divinity, we fall.

Second, go to the floor of Congress like a State of the Union address and declare to the Members of Congress, but more importantly to the American people, that this is an economic crisis unlike anything we have ever encountered. Americans are scared. They need our leaders to act like leaders.

Third, stop making this about Wall Street and make it about Main Street . Explain how this impacts everyone. Of course, the President’s plan isn’t perfect, but we don’t have the luxury of time to work toward that noble goal.

Fourth, implore our leaders to put aside petty partisanship.

History will be a cruel and ruthless judge when it affixes blame. Now is not the time to point fingers. Now is the time to work together and show the world that the United States is truly a shining city on a hill. We may make mistakes, but in times of crisis, we lock arms of unity and find solutions.

Even if President Bush doesn’t call for a day of prayer, I hope each of you will say a prayer for our nation today. Specifically, we should offer prayers for President Bush, Speaker Pelosi, Treasury Secretary Paulson and everyone who shoulders this crushing burden.

Within the past 96 hours, the DCCC has committed financial resources to the campaign against John Shadegg.

Politickeraz.com is rapidly filling a much needed void of political reporting in this state. They are the first media outlet to report what I learned over the weekend: The DCCC -flush with cash - is coming into CD 3.

The news isn’t all bad. They’ve only laid down $162,000 for television. That is far from a sustained commitment. However, they must be seeing something that makes them think there is a possibility of beating Shadegg.

Here is what you should watch for over the next 10 days. If the DCCC comes in next week or 10 days from now with a few hundred thousand or more, they will believe they can win. The $162,000 buy is purely to watch Shadegg’s poll numbers and see if they move. This is “feeler” money. They are feeling out whether their money could make a difference.

If they don’t move or get better for Shadegg, the DCCC will be gone for good. However, if they move against Shadegg, it won’t be fun to watch.

Obviously, they weren’t planning on playing here and they still aren’t sure they will play.

Here is the point.: Republicans, get of your Democrat insignia and help John Shadegg!

(The Democrat insignia is a donkey otherwise known as an… So, get off your Democrat insignia means…Well, a joke is never funny if you have to explain everything.)

If you haven’t given to John Shadegg for Congress, now is the time. I can’t imagine what Arizona and the U.S. Congress would be like without John Shadegg.

My friend, Greg Patterson at www.espressopundit.com, recently wrote that this could be a good Republican year. I couldn’t disagree more and this is one more reason why.

Starting this week, I will be writing a four-part post about why the Republican Party goal should simply be survival and not victory in 2008. I know that sounds excessively morbid. But there is not one piece of tangible evidence at the local, state or national level that suggests this will be a good Republican year.

The fact that John McCain is locked in a statistical tie is an enormous testament to how strong of a candidate he is. In a normal year, McCain would be up six, seven, eight points or more. 

I know that you can’t re-use a famous debate sound bite again. It just doesn’t have the same swat and, in fact, it would make someone look small for copying it.

Still, I couldn’t help but think that Obama looked very “Dan Quayle” when talking about foreign policy.

I happen to be one of those people who believe Quayle was unfairly tarnished because of a terrible introduction when Bush 41 announced him as his VP pick and because of this one line  in the 1988 debate.

At the time Quayle became VP, he was on a meteoric rise. The meteor crashed to earth when Bensten uttered the most famous political zinger of all time.

On Friday night, I couldn’t help but think that Obama looked more than a little small when discussing foreign policy next to McCain. Since 1982, John McCain has met just about every significant world leader and traveled to more countries than most people even know exist.

In my opinion, Obama made a massive misstep when he invoked the name of Henry Kissinger in an attempt to make the point that some of John McCain’s foreign policy advisors disagree with McCain’s position that he won’t meet with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran unless certain pre-conditions are met.

Obama has bungled this issue badly for months, and bungled it even further by attempting to make the case that McCain and Kissinger disagree. And Obama even went further, when he claimed to agree with Kissinger on Iran. McCain took that softball attack and drove it deep into the left field bleachers.

After clarifying Kissinger’s position, here is what McCain said.

“By the way, my friend, Dr. Kissinger, who’s been my friend for 35 years, would be interested to hear this conversation and Senator Obama’s depiction of his — of his positions on the issue. I’ve known him for 35 years.”

Hmmm….Senator McCain could have said, “Senator Obama, I’ve known Henry Kissinger for 35 years. He’s my friend. Senator Obama, you aren’t qualified to carry his briefcase.”

O.K., I realize the cadence isn’t exactly right, but Obama didn’t exactly compare himself to Kissinger. He may have a Messiah complex, but even he knew not to compare himself to Kissinger.

If anyone needed a reason to vote for John McCain, he proved it Friday night. We can either choose someone who has the experience, tenacity and courage to deal with the significant issues facing our country. Or, we can choose someone who doesn’t.

The Kissinger exchange is the perfect example of why we need John McCain.